Almost everyone is familiar with the “Power Ratings” team.
Let me introduce my NFL “power rating totals.” I have designed a set of home/away numbers for each NFL team. I can mix and match them based on performance each week throughout the season, so I can find value in game totals.

These numbers are based on a calculation I devised, going back a certain number of years for each club. Taking into account coaches and players. And I give a “weighted percentage” rating for both home and away total scores. The process is repeated with a different “weighted percentage” for a certain number of times. Once finished, the “PRT’s” are ready for the season.

Please note that these are hard numbers. We have to take into account injuries and the weather.

For example: if a starting quarterback is offside. Do you have to decide how many points it’s really worth?

Week 1 of 2006 is a perfect example. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is out when the Steelers host Miami. Veteran Charlie Batch takes his place.

The “Total Power Rating” for this pairing is 41 (we can expect a total of 41 points to be scored).

The game opened at 37 before Big Ben underwent emergency surgery. Now, in most places, the total is 34.5. Not a dramatic drop, right?

Now we have a difference of 6.5 points in the “PRT” and the actual total. Do you still take a look at playing the over?

Here Are Week One’s NFL “Power Rating Totals”

Miami/Pittsburgh 41

Denver/St. louis 44

NYJets/Tennessee 40.5

Buffalo/New England 41.5

Baltimore/Tampa Bay 36.5

Cincinnati/Kansas City 49

Seattle/Detroit 44

Atlanta/Carolina 41

Philadelphia/Houston 43.5

New Orleans/Cleveland 41

Dallas/Jacksonville 38

Chicago/Green Bay 39.5

San Francisco/Arizona 40

Indianapolis/New York Giants 45.5

Minnesota/Washington 43.5

San Diego/Oakland 43

We are looking for a minimum difference of at least 3 points between the “PRT” and the total of bets to consider a play.

Thank you and good luck!

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